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Financial Times-ledare idag: ”Sannolikt” att Alliansen vinner svenska valet.

I dagens huvudledare bedömer Financial Times det som ”sannolikt” att Alliansens vinner valet (se nedan). ”Väljarna blir allt tröttare på honom” [Persson].

”The centre-right Alliance for Sweden is ahead in the polls and looks likely to defeat the Social Democrats led by Göran Persson, the current prime minister. Mr Persson has been in office since 1996 and voters are tiring of him.”

(FT använder en intressant språklig konstruktion: ”the voters are tiring of him”; vilket väl får översättas med att.väljarna är alltmera utleda, eller finner honom alltmer tröttsam.)

Om Perssons skrytvals om tillståndet i Sverige punkteras av väljarna den 17 september får, enligt FT, nederlaget implikationer för debatten och politiken även i övriga Europa. Ett nederlag skulle gjuta nytt liv i liberaler och dämpa oreformerade kontinentala politiker: en Alliansseger ”skulle innebära en viktig förändring [för politiken i Europa] i både ton och sak”.

Sverige blir europeiskt även på ett annat sätt: LO:s chefekonom Dan Andersson förespråkar idag att Sverige inför EU:s och ILO:s internationellt accepterade arbetslöshetsstatistik. Det innebär att dagens ”regeringssiffra” skulle vara 7,4 procent arbetslöshet och inte 4,7 procent med det nu Perssonanvända måttet (Dagens Industri 1/9). Sanningen kryper fram, till glädje för de arbetslösa som bör kunna hoppas på en mindre flegmatisk inställning till arbetslösheten ju sannare den svenska statistiken blir.

"Sweden's decision.

For a relatively small country, Sweden has had a big influence on economic and social debate in the developed world. The "Swedish model" has long been cited by those who are keen to argue that it is possible to combine a vigorous private sector with high taxes and a large welfare state.

Yet Sweden's election, due on September 17, could push the country in a new direction. Once again the result will have implications across Europe.
The centre-right Alliance for Sweden is ahead in the polls and looks likely to defeat the Social Democrats led by Göran Persson, the current prime minister. Mr Persson has been in office since 1996 and voters are tiring of him. The opposition coalition is led by Fredrik Reinfeldt of the Moderate party, a charismatic 41-year-old with threechildren, who is going down well with voters.

But the election is about more than the desire for a fresh face. The Alliance for Sweden is fighting on a tax-cutting platform. It proposes to chop income tax for the low paid, halve payroll tax for employers taking on youths who have been unemployed for a long time and slash property taxes. All this will be funded in part by reduced benefits to the unemployed. If it wins, the Alliance for Sweden is also expected to launch a programme of privatisation and labour-market reforms.

The centre-right's manifesto is far from a wholesale rejection of the Swedish model. It focuses on the environment and promises to keep up spending on public services. But for all that, the election of the Alliance for Sweden would represent an important change in both tone and substance.

If Sweden, the home of the welfare state, opts for a reformist party it will give heart to economic liberals who want to tackle the excesses of the welfare state in France, Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

It may also give pause to the many on the European centre-left who have got used to arguing that the "European social model" is alive and well and living in Sweden.

There is no doubt that Nordic countries such as Denmark, Finland and Sweden have managed to combine impressive rates of economic growth with a strong commitment to the welfare state.

The Swedish Social Democrats have done well over the past decade. They have reformed pensions, presided over some of the fastest economic growth in Europe and renewed public services: for example, introducing real parental choice in schools. [Sakfel, dock -- det var den borgerliga regeringen 1991-94:s förtjänst och beslut.]

But the Swedish government is also vulnerable to criticisms of its labour-market policies. Although make-work schemes flatter the numbers, many young people cannot get jobs. The opposition has struck a chord with its complaints about high taxation and hidden unemployment. Even in Sweden, it seems, you can take the "European social model" too far."